How Retailers Can Make the Best of a Slowdown

Moving quickly to improve performance can help retailers to recover faster.

Ashish A. Kotecha, Josh Leibowitz, and Ian MacKenzie

September 2008

Downturns are tough on retailers. Recent McKinsey research indicates that during the last two recessions (1990–91 and 2000–01), growth slowed for nearly every retail subsector in the United States. Ninety-three percent of the retailers surveyed that existed during both downturns experienced slowing revenue growth in one of them, and 59 percent endured it in both.¹

Unfortunately for retailers, their position on the front lines of consumer spending doesn’t translate into a rapid turnaround when the general economy experiences a subsequent uptick. The average retail subsector growth rate during the first year of recovery following the 1990–91 and 2000–01 downturns was 0.3 percent. And 12 of 15 retail sectors lagged behind even that rate of growth during one or both upturns.²

These downturn dynamics—declining sales followed by a sluggish recovery period—mean retailers should move quickly to minimize performance deterioration. The challenge, of course, is that retailers have a large number of options to sort through, ranging from cutting costs by shutting stores or restructuring support functions, to increasing revenue by refreshing stores or overhauling promotions. Many make the mistake of focusing on what is easy or known to them and fail to tackle more challenging goals that might improve their competitive positioning during the inevitable upturn.

In our experience, some basic rules of thumb are invaluable for helping retailers rapidly sort through their options and set priorities for action—in particular, determining whether to take an offensive or defensive approach. Combining a tough self-assessment with a hard-nosed scan of the environment can help retailers decide on the relative importance of reducing costs, increasing investments, creating financial flexibility, and seeking near-term revenue growth (exhibit).

Retailers should start by taking a rigorous look at the health of their balance sheets, management teams, and overall operating performance. Companies with reasonable cash reserves and ready access to credit lines, for instance, have options—such as investing in stores, people, or acquisitions—that weaker competitors simply lack.

At the same time, retailers need to be realistic about the potential of their businesses. Do they operate store formats or play in a subsector with strong growth prospects? To what extent is the market already saturated, and where does the retailer stand versus competitors? Recent growth rates, market penetration figures, and a serious review of the strengths and weaknesses of competitors are all important factors to consider.

Companies with good financial strength in markets with significant growth potential should lift investment to gain strategic advantage over competitors. Big bets, such as doubling down on new stores or remodeling old ones, are one possibility. Equally important are smaller bets, such as recruiting talent from weaker players or investing in more precise local market execution. For example, when one specialty retailer began suffering from declining foot traffic in its stores, the company built an analytic tool to help merchants and members of the central marketing organization more effectively use data from customer-relationship-management (CRM) and transaction databases. This allowed the retailer to better predict local demand and decide which items should receive how much space in its advertising circular. Comparable store sales have risen between two and four percent in test markets employing the new promotion-effectiveness tool.

Retailers with good financial health in mature industries can also go on the offensive, taking actions to quickly grow revenue by driving traffic into stores through more compelling offers and ensuring that staff is ready on the floor for the assisted sale. For example, a North American soft goods retailer has reversed declining sales, improved customer satisfaction, and increased the frequency and average size of transactions by focusing on eliminating out-of-stocks, raising the effectiveness of front-line salespeople, and making small store-layout changes that help customers find the goods they want.

Companies with weaker financial health will need to focus more aggressively on reducing costs. Our recent experience suggests that weak performers have major opportunities to rationalize inventory stock keeping units (SKUs)—freeing up working capital—and to renegotiate terms on direct sourcing. These companies can also increase shop-floor efficiency, an area where they frequently lag. By applying lean operations techniques to redeploy labor, they can shorten the time staff spend on noncustomer-facing tasks and increase the time spent helping customers. The focus should be on getting more from existing sales resources, not just on cutting labor hours. Indeed, the key driver of economics is sales—not just cost as a percentage of sales.

More broadly, retailers should bear in mind that the least effective thing to do during a downturn is to simply “hunker down” and “weather the storm.” Though there’s no escaping some pain, moving quickly to improve performance can reduce the odds of a deep dip in sales and position retailers to participate fully in the inevitable upturn.

Original Article: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Retail_Consumer_Good/Strategy_Analysis How_retailers_can_make_the_best_of_a_slowdown_2188

Leverage Your Marketing Efforts

Today's economy is volatile and unpredictable. Markets feed off of each other like nothing before, and the world economy is one marketplace. Consumers today are smart. They research purchase options, talk with others, and can make or break a business. Understanding how to engage this marketplace changes is essential to being successful. However, complex problems tend to come with long complex answers and complex answer eat up precious time. So, for our purposes, I have shortened some simple small business recommendations into short, easy to understand strategies that every business should be actively engaging in.

1. Enterprise Branding - Many companies are doing an exceptional job branding at the micro level (product) but is missing the mark on creating an enterprise presence. Evolving your company's - not just product - brand is an essential part in growing the business and establishing a larger market presence.

2. Analytics and Email -

a. Leverage the internet by employing an email marketing initiative. You can use this to put your products in front of more people, more often while at the same time increase the availability of feedback and behavioral data from consumers. This will also help with enterprise branding, customer loyalty, and market exposure.

b. What are you currently spending on marketing and where is it going? Based on current pay per click (PPC) rates, what kind of turn over are you seeing. How leveraged are your key words respectively to the search volume of those key words?

c. Home Page - What is the click through rate on your home page? Bounce rate? Building high value content into your home page, such as product demo’s or a welcome video to captivate an audience will encourage a higher CLR and a lower Bounce rate. Ideally, to work in conjunction with enterprise branding, consider re-tooling your home page.

3. Economic Outlook - An economic slowdown will take a toll on businesses expecting U.S. retail to maintain its current pace. To hedge against losses, consider some of the following:

a. Inventory turn over - Has it gradually slowed? Keep less inventory on hand if so and more cash available.

b. International Markets - Consider putting your sites in multiple languages and buying country specific domain names (.cn - China, .se - Sweden, .uk - London). This can help you penetrate similar target markets in foreign countries. Be sure to do some thorough research to ensure you are marketing a product correctly given the cultural differences of foreign consumers. This is an ideal growth strategy (if done correctly) but can be even more rewarding when you need to find new channels of distribution due to economic slowdown.

These are some of the essentials that every business can employ with little real capital while at the same time seeing exceptional results.

Trumping the Multinationals

This is a great article on bnet that explains how local companies are beating the competition from multinational companies like Wal Mart and Google. Below is an excerpt of the article.

Full Article: http://www.bnet.com/2439-13239_23-190912.html

Excerpt:

If you're setting out to compete in rapidly developing economies, beware: Smart domestic enterprises are staving off the challenge from global market leaders. And they're seizing new opportunities before multinationals can.

Consider: In China, search engine Baidu is used seven times more than Google China every day. In India, Bharti Airtel has trumped Vodafone as the market leader in cellular telephony. And in Mexico, Grupo Elektra has beaten Wal-Mart as the country's top retailer.

Domestic dynamos like these dominate foreign rivals by applying six strategies. For example, they use their deep understanding of consumers in their countries to create highly customized offerings. They leverage cutting-edge technology to keep operating costs down. And they tap into pools of cheap local labor instead of relying on expensive automation.

To prevail over local winners on their turf, set aside your tried-and-true strategies, advise Bhattacharya and Michael. Instead, understand--and emulate--domestic players' tactics.

Chinese Inflation Affects You

Sources: http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/02/19/china-inflation-food-markets-econ-cx_vk_0219markets04.html
http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/default.htm

Have all good things come to an end with China? Highly doubtful, but Chinese officials reported Tuesday of record high inflation rates. Their Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 7.1% for January, making rates higher than they have been since 1997. The problem stems from the detrimental winter snowstorms which devastated crops and cattle. This, according to both Forbes and BBC News, was the main force behind rising inflation rates.

Unfortunately things are only expected to get worse. Goldman Sachs expects inflation to worsen in February as the severe winter storms took place only after January 21^st. “In our view, the inflation impact from the snow storm may have not been fully reflected in the January inflation data,” they said. They also made note that the suggested 7% CPI reading for February is likely to be closer to double-digits.

As a result of the inflation levels China’s central bank is expected to increase interest rates at least four times this year. Monetary policy is expected to continue to be very tight with higher reserve requirements, accelerated currency appreciation (yuan), and more “heavy-handed controls on bank lending.” Speculators note that China continues to constrain monetary policy despite the United States’ economic slowdown. The extremely fast growing money supply of China is another potential threat that could play a role in keeping rates higher. To be blunt, China needs to slow down, and they know it.

As China tightens policy we can expect the economy to slow down as it tries to stabilize itself. Record high Chinese interest rates will cause Foreign Direct Invest (FDI) to increase. With the United States at such low interest rates, a spike in investment from China could be just the thing we need to catalyze us back into motion.

On the opposite side, FDI to china should decrease, which could mean higher prices for durable goods. This would in turn decrease consumption for Americans and other countries who buy Chinese produced goods. Because of globalization, the interconnection between countries not only affects the stock markets, it also affects how monetary policy in one country could potentially effect consumption, prices, and growth in another. That’s globalization.

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